A study of pretreatment nomograms to predict pathological stage and biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy for clinically resectable prostate cancer in Japanese men.

BACKGROUND Accurate pretreatment identification of the risks that prostate cancer has extended beyond the gland and that it will recur would significantly influence practice patterns. Preoperative nomograms to predict such risks have not been developed for the oriental male population. METHODS Construction of nomograms to predict preoperatively pathological outcome and early biochemical failure following radical prostatectomy in Japanese males was based on logistic regression analysis, with predicted probabilities and 95% confidence intervals for the final model being obtained by repeating the analysis on 1000 bootstrap samples from the original cohort. RESULTS Prostate-specific antigen level, clinical stage and biopsy Gleason score contributed significantly to the prediction of pathological stage and of biochemical failure in the univariate analysis (p < 0.001). Combined use of these three variables predicted these treatment outcomes better than any single variable (p < 0.001). Nomograms combining these three variables to predict final pathological findings and early biochemical failure were then developed. The medians and 95% confidence intervals of the predicted probabilities are presented in the nomograms. CONCLUSIONS This information enables clinicians to use their nomograms when counseling Japanese patients, leading to more informed treatment decisions and helping to identify those with a high risk of early biochemical failure. The nomograms may also be used to assure comparability of different treatment modalities in investigational trials.